The real unemployment rate
The figure we most often hear is 10% unemployment. But that’s not the whole truth — it’s a politically spun figure that minimizes the real story. According to BBC America, we might actually be looking at unemployment closer to 17% if factoring in the “lost workforce,” or those people that have decided to drop out of industry in favor of going back to school, retiring early or trying to find alternative means to supplement income. And, according to Time (January, 2010) some regions have unemployment rates as high as 30%.
Unemployment figures are largely calculated from claims against unemployment insurance, for example, when you file a claim with the EDD. But this is a narrow view, avoiding the overall “employment health” of the country. Even so, we must recognize that unemployment figures have been calculated in this way for a very long time. This means it is a sound relative measure — that is, since we are calculating it essentially the same way we did in years past, we can measure overall health as a comparison to other years. We know that 10% is horrible. The last time we saw unemployment this high was entering into the great depression, when it rose to 23.6% in 1933. So while it may not be accurate, it does give us a solid indication that our economy is in very, very bad shape.
My-Project-Management-Expert.com
on January 14th, 2010
Yes I’d agree. Over here in the UK the unemployment rate is massaged downwards by people going onto incapacity benefit or various youth training schemes.
As such taking into account all those on some kind of working credit, approx 20-30% of the population here are underworking or underpaid. Worse than that is the fact that approx 40% of those working are doing so for the public sector in some shape or form.
One has to wonder what will happen when the pyramid scheme we have built, collapses when the money merry go round stops. After all you can only print money for so long. There does come a time when someone somewhere actually has to do something productive which creates real money!
Regards
Susan de Sousa
Site Editor http://www.my-project-management-expert.com
Robert Gainees
on January 14th, 2010
It is all over the media that this will be a jobless recovery {if we’re lucky.} The problem is exacerbated by our government, which brings to mind Obama.. I hear people saying how smart he is, and that gives me pause.
He has dedicataed his presidency and the Democratic Party to converting America into a fascist syndicalism, such as Musolini did in Italy in the ’30”s. Both Musolini and Hitler gained support from LARGE industry by making them profitable and providing cheap labor. Do you see the similarity to HIS PLAN?
So, is he smart or is he stupid? And the answer to that depends on whether he is good or evil. If he is evil, he is very smart, but if he is good he is stupid. He can not be both good and smart.
I don’t believe we can spend our way out of debt, nor tax ourselves into prosperity. I see everything this government does as negative to the economy. Enjoy the upturn from the stimulus which should hit shortly. After that? I just hope…and pray there is a God Who loves us.
zbeckman
on January 21st, 2010
I understand your perspective regarding Obama’s current administration, however, I think that no matter what his policies are, he inherited a problem that is beyond any single President’s ability to fix. There is not a one or even two term solution. No matter how well he does, he’ll fall short of the expectations our very out-of-touch society has for him. Hence, he’ll fall short of the mark. (Personally, I would have preferred a “damn the torpedoes” attitude; if he had just accepted that he’s getting one term and got out there and made a difference, it would be more effective — and would earn him more respect).
In terms of fiscal policy, I think Bernanke is doing a great job. I have faith in him. He’s a student of the Great Depression, and I think his policies are effectively avoiding what could be a far, far worse situation. He understands the lessons learned from what our government did leading into the Great Depression and I believe he is succeeding in avoiding a repeat performance. That doesn’t mean things are bad — just that they could be much worse, and could still get much worse. I credit anyone that can turn the ship at this point and start us out of the mess. (Time had a great article on Bernanke in their 2010 year end edition).
I certainly don’t blame Obama for where we are today. I blame several decades of Republican policy for bringing us to where we are today, starting with diminishing educational programs. It’s a huge contrast against the Kennedy-era push to make us the #1 nation in education and science.